By most accounts, Hillary Clinton’s path to victory relies on substantial turnout among black and Latino voters. And while early voting numbers so far appear to favor the Democrats, reports in recent days have suggested that although Latino participation may be up, African American turnout may be lower than in 2012. How concerned should the Clinton camp be? On the one hand, maybe not so much. These stories have been based on simple comparisons of early vote totals from one year to the next, without accounting for rapidly changing demographics in states such as Florida, Arizona and Texas. They have also not tended to take into account the turnout of white voters as a point of comparison. As a result, it is difficult to say what the early vote numbers mean for the composition of the electorate this year.
From The Washington Post: https://goo.gl/Tys452